Cash on delivery remains the defining payment method of Middle East e-commerce in 2026: about 45 percent of shoppers in the region prefer it (Go-Globe), it reaches up to 75 percent of transactions in some Saudi segments (Go-Globe), and it drives return rates many times higher than card payments (Quiqup).
This is a stats roundup for operators, analysts, and anyone writing a business case. Every number is attributed to its source, and we have kept out the unsourced folklore that circulates in this niche. Where a statistic is a range, the range is what the source reports.
How widespread is COD in the Middle East and GCC?
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About 45 percent of Middle East shoppers prefer COD as their payment method (Go-Globe). Roughly half of your addressable market, gone, is the realistic cost of switching COD off.
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COD accounts for up to 75 percent of transactions in some Saudi segments (Go-Globe). Category and demographic mix matter: some Saudi niches are overwhelmingly cash-driven even as cards and wallets grow overall.
The operator takeaway: COD is not a legacy behavior to wait out. It is a structural feature of the market that rewards stores that manage it well. The economics of doing so are broken down in COD vs Prepaid for Gulf E-Commerce: The Real Economics.
What do COD return rates look like?
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COD orders are returned at roughly 12 to 13 times the rate of card-paid orders in the UAE (Quiqup). This is the single most cited gap between the two payment methods, and it is enormous.
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RTO (return to origin) commonly runs 25 to 35 percent for COD-heavy stores (industry reporting). One in three or four parcels making a round trip at the store's expense is a normal, unmanaged baseline.
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WhatsApp order confirmation is widely reported to cut COD returns 30 to 40 percent (vendor industry reporting). The largest documented lever, and among the cheapest to implement.
If RTO is new vocabulary, the mechanics and cost math are in What Is RTO? Return to Origin Explained for E-Commerce.
How big is the market these numbers sit in?
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Saudi e-commerce was about 15 billion dollars in 2024 and is projected to reach around 29 billion dollars by 2030 (IMARC). Roughly a doubling over the decade's back half, with COD riding along for a large share of it.
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WhatsApp has about 33 million users in Saudi Arabia, roughly 87 percent of social media users (DataReportal). This is why WhatsApp, not email or SMS, is the operational channel for COD confirmation, tracking, and delivery coordination in the Gulf.
What does customer service volume look like for COD stores?
- WISMO ("where is my order") queries commonly make up 25 to 50 percent of e-commerce ticket volume (industry reporting). COD amplifies this: a cash buyer waiting for a courier is a nervous buyer, and unanswered WISMO curdles into refusal at the door.
The numbers at a glance
| Statistic | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East shoppers preferring COD | ~45% | Go-Globe |
| COD share in some Saudi segments | Up to 75% | Go-Globe |
| COD vs card return rate, UAE | ~12-13x higher | Quiqup |
| Typical RTO for COD-heavy stores | 25-35% | Industry reporting |
| Return reduction from WhatsApp confirmation | 30-40% | Vendor industry reporting |
| Saudi e-commerce market, 2024 | ~$15B | IMARC |
| Saudi e-commerce projection, 2030 | ~$29B | IMARC |
| WhatsApp users in Saudi Arabia | ~33M (~87% of social users) | DataReportal |
| WISMO share of support tickets | 25-50% | Industry reporting |
| Average cart abandonment | ~70% | Baymard Institute |
One general e-commerce number rounds out the picture: average cart abandonment is about 70 percent (Baymard Institute). In COD markets, part of recovering those carts happens in chat, where a conversation can end in a placed order rather than a reminder email.
What should operators do with these numbers?
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Budget for COD as a channel with its own P&L. With returns running at 12 to 13 times the card rate (Quiqup), lumping COD and prepaid orders together hides where margin leaks.
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Put confirmation before dispatch at the top of the roadmap. A 30 to 40 percent reduction in returns (vendor industry reporting) from one workflow change outranks nearly any other project.
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Staff or automate for WISMO. If 25 to 50 percent of tickets are tracking questions (industry reporting), answering them instantly is table stakes, not a nice-to-have.
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Plan for growth, not decline. With Saudi e-commerce heading toward roughly 29 billion dollars by 2030 (IMARC), COD volumes will grow in absolute terms even if the percentage share drifts down.
Where does ReplAi sit in this picture?
The statistics above describe a market where order volume runs through chat: confirmations, WISMO, delivery coordination, all in Arabic-speaking conversations on WhatsApp and Instagram. That is the workload ReplAi automates for Shopify stores. Measured across our merchants, about 80 percent of customer messages are handled with no human involved, with average replies under 14 seconds, across more than 4,000 DMs a day. In our Q1 2026 pilot cohort, DM revenue lifted 75 percent at the bottom quartile, 150 percent at the median, and 300 percent at the top quartile.
If you want to see what your own COD message load looks like automated, book a demo. For the full operational strategy behind the numbers, read the RTO playbook for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Frequently asked questions
Is COD declining in the GCC as digital payments grow?
Digital payment adoption is rising, but the base is so large that COD remains structurally significant: about 45 percent of Middle East shoppers still prefer it, and some Saudi segments run up to 75 percent COD (Go-Globe). For operators, the practical planning assumption through the late 2020s is a large COD channel that needs managing, not a vanishing one.
Why is the COD return rate so much higher than for prepaid orders?
Because the buyer commits nothing at checkout. Refusing the parcel costs them zero, so impulse regret, forgotten orders, absent recipients, and cash shortages all convert into returns. Quiqup's UAE data putting COD returns at roughly 12 to 13 times the card rate reflects that asymmetry of commitment.
Which of these statistics should a Shopify store track internally?
Your own versions of three: COD share of orders, RTO rate on COD orders, and WISMO share of support messages. Compare them to the ranges above quarterly. Benchmarks and interpretation are covered in COD Return Rate Benchmarks: What Shopify Stores Should Expect.
Can I cite these numbers in my own materials?
Yes, with the original attribution: Go-Globe for COD preference and Saudi segment share, Quiqup for the UAE return-rate multiple, IMARC for Saudi market size, DataReportal for WhatsApp reach, and Baymard Institute for cart abandonment. The RTO range, WISMO share, and confirmation-impact figures are industry reporting and should be labeled as such.